Hertford Responds: The Software that led to the Lockdown

25 June 2020 - 17:00

Thursday 25th June 2020

Throughout the first half of March 2020, European nations raced to enforce lockdowns in an attempt to stem the spread of the corona virus. But the UK stood apart: major sporting events continued, and for pubs, restaurants, cinemas, universities, and schools it was business as usual. The UK government, it seemed, was set on a markedly different approach to that of our continental counterparts. And then, more or less overnight, the UK government pivoted: just ten days later, the UK was also in lockdown. What had caused this unexpected volte face?

It rapidly became apparent that one crucial driver for this decision was an epidemiological model developed by Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College, London. The report produced on the basis of the model made international headlines, and it is surely one of the most influential and terrifying scientific papers written this century. It predicted that, unless containment measures were taken, then the virus would kill more than 20,000 UK residents per day: the NHS would be utterly overwhelmed. The report made international headlines. A short time later, the software underneath the Ferguson report was made public, and computer programmers across the globe were fascinated to start analysing it. And it turns out that the program that led to an unprecedented change in UK life, with mind boggling social and economic consequences, is in fact rather crude.

So what is the story of this program? How does the model work? Why are people concerned about the quality of the software? Could software quality have played a role in making the lockdown decision? In this webinar Professor Wooldridge will look at these questions, and the issues they raised.

If you missed the webinar, you can catch up below: